Investment dynamics in advanced economies since the financial crisis

Investment dynamics in advanced economies since the financial crisis

5 Pages · 2017 · 58 KB · English

investment activity, particularly in advanced economies. This has ratio of business investment to GDP in advanced economies was still below its long- . 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017 actual uncertainty demand financial supply. United States. -1.5. -1.0. -0.5. 0.0. 0.5. 1.0. 1.5. 2.

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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 6 / 2017 Boxe s Investment dynamics in advanced economies since the financial crisis 35 Boxes 1 Investment dynamics in advanced economies since the financial crisis This box aims to shed some light from a cross country perspective on the shocks affecting investment in advanced economies since the financial crisis It is often argued that one of the key factors holding back the global economic recovery in the current economic cycle has been the subdued pace of investment activity, par ticularly in advanced economies This has been attributed to impaired financial markets, public sector budget constraints, heightened policy uncertainty and weak economic prospects At the same time the lack of dynamism in the business sector appears more accentuated than in previous recoveries, which, together with the sharper decline in investment expenditure in the aftermath of the Great Recession, has led to significant investment gaps , ie persistently negative deviations from long term averages The usual pattern in business investment of reaching a trough soon after a recession and returning relatively quickly to pre recession levels did not materialise to the same extent after the Great Recession 8 While this pattern was visible in business cycles in the 1990s and early 2000s, it has not been seen in the current cycle: the initial rebound in investment after the trough in the first quarter of 2009 was interrupted by a second recession in the euro area amid the sovereign debt crisis This pause in the recovery can be observed in Chart A, which depicts the ratio of investment to GDP in advanced economies This ratio started to decline from a relatively low level (125%) compared with past cycles and fell to close to 105% in 2009 At this level, busines s investment initiated a sustained and quick recovery that was halted by the euro area sovereign debt crisis The ratio of investment then recorded a renew ed decline between the second half of 2015 and the end of 2016 This was mainly caused by commodity p roducers, such as Canada, Australia and to a lesser extent the United States, reducing their investment, in part because of the sharp fall in commodity prices (particular ly oil) to very low levels Only very recently, at the beginning of 2017, did a rebound in investment emerge Overall, however, the ratio of business investment to GDP in advanced economies was still below its long term average in the first quarter of 2017 8 The concept of investment adopte d here is business investment (private nonresidential) and includes private sector investment in structures, equipment (information, industrial and transportation) and intellectual property rights The concept may vary marginally across countries ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 6 / 2017 Boxes Investment dynamics in advanced economies since the financial crisis 36 Chart A Investment to GDP ratio in advanced economies (percentage; quarterly data) Source: ECB staff calculations based on data from

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